The ‘What-ifs?’ of the Middle East

There are a lot of ‘what-ifs’ bouncing around the Middle East at the moment: speculation and hypothesis are rampant, but even these are subject to constant change and modification. Witness Syria, which renegged on it’s ‘peace plan:’ civilians continue to die each day. Or consider the Muslim Brotherhood, which has officially thrown it’s hat into the presidential election ring after consistent hem-hawing. News giant CNN has even jumped onto the speculation bandwagon, with articles on ‘Why American’s Should Care About Syria’ (which delved into the possible consequences of both pro-action and inaction in Syria) and ‘What if Israel Bombed Iran?’ which starts with,

 ”Imagine that you wake up tomorrow morning and discover that during the night. Israeli planes had conducted a bombing raid on Iran. How would your world have changed?”

 In honor of the sort of vague wave of speculation and uncertainty that has rooted itself in the present climate of the Middle East (replacing that wild wave of rioting and violence, although rioting and violence are obviously still continuing in certain countries), let’s take a look at some wild-card, vague what-if possibilities, because, as Kate Capshaw so cheesily reminds us in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, anything goes!

“Anything Goes” from Indiana Jones

The negative what-ifs

> What if Salafis overtook the Egyptian government?

Egypt’s Military rulers have pretty much made sure that this won’t ever happen, since they recently disqualified several promising presidential candidates from both the Salafist and Muslim Brotherhood parties. A strong Islamic rule over Egypt thus seems unlikely in the near future, but anything goes in Egypt, where protests seem to ignite every other day and people (a.k.a. the Military government and the police) keep pulling a fast one on the general public. However, if, perchance, this did happen, or a Muslim Brotherhood candidate decided to run less moderately than his party has been appearing to be as of late, the results would be possibly disastrous for Egypt, at least on an international level. Would tourism go back to pre-revolution times, if strict dress was required and Egypt’s clubs and beach resorts disappeared?

 >What if oil disappeared from Saudi Arabia/Middle East?

Ok, so this one isn’t happening relatively soon, but it’s worth throwing it out there anyway. Saudia Arabia itself is not the heyday country of endless public spending that it used to be, back when the oil was first discovered. In some of these countries, oil is the only thing keeping them afloat in the global economy. Take away the oil, and what do they have? Weak economies that don’t even produce food, let alone exports; unskilled (and, in the case of Saudi Arabia, unwilling) workers; and a lack of any other resources. Some of the Arab countries don’t even have natural water supplies, which makes the situation even more precarious. If the despotic and new-regime governments have the people’s (and their own) interests at heart, they should start boosting other sectors of the economy (once the rioting subsides).

>What if Iran bombed Israel?
CNN’s article discusses the possible outcomes of Israel bombing Iran. But what about if Iran somehow managed to bomb Israel? Would there be full-out retaliation (providing that Israel’s weapons weren’t hit?) The USA, in either scenario, would likely get involved-how could they not, seeing as supposed nuclear weapons are at stake and Israel is so closely tied with our government?-but this scenario, out of all the rest, would affect the world the most. Oil prices would probably go up, the Middle East would probably explode (with celebrating? with shame?) into even greater turmoil, and Iran would certainly become even more of a pariah than it already is.
>What if Bashar Al-Assad doesn’t step down?

This is the biggest question of all, and is being asked on a daily basis by the international community. It doesn’t seem likely that the USA/NATO will intervene. The United Nations probably won’t, either; after all, it’s been over a year now and al-Assad is still hanging in there. It seems unlikely that the Syrians will cave in, but a good fact to point out is that, unlike in Libya, where the rebels were strongly against Gaddhafi loyalists, there doesn’t seem to be a huge split between pro-Assad citizens and the protesting body.

…..And now the positive ‘what-ifs’
 
>What if women were granted equal rights?

Would men lose rights? Would children suffer as their mother’s joined the workforce, gained hobbies, spent less time at home? Would houses go uncleaned and fester, would food go uncooked, would families break down and split apart? Would men have more sex, or less? Would society’s morals scatter to the wind? Would immorality reign? Would women become more competitive and self-absorbed? Would Islam be insulted? Would Middle Eastern society, in effect, cease to exist? No, no, no and, oh, no! There really are only positive benefits to this eternal ‘what-if.’

 
>What if Israel gave Palestinian’s the right to govern themselves and withdrew?

 At the moment, this seems highly unlikely, given that France’s Le Monde reported that both countries are at an extreme impasse and unwilling to even talk. What with the constant hunger strikes and international media attention, Palestine on any level seems an impossibility. But if Israel did experience a coup de coeur and decide to give freedom to it’s Palestinian brothers, I could only hope that the Middle East would rejoice, and that Muslims and Christians could live side by side as they did in the past (kinda seems impossible in today’s climate, but if it was possible then, it’s possible now!)
 
>What if Ahmadinejad was no longer president of Iran?

I don’t think it’s a stretch that if the Iranian government was replaced, that Iran would probably embrace freedom and reopen it’s doors to the rest of the world. Is it solely Ahmadinejad that embodies what was started by Khomeini and the Islamic Revolution? Of course not, but it seems that the Iranian government rallies around a central figure to dominate. If revolution did occur in Iran, I believe it would be better organized and a lot more peaceful than the other Arab Spring Revolutions, because the Iranians are proud of their heritage, their religion, and culture and I believe that in the aftermath of such a revolution, that they would quickly unite to form a new, stable government.

All of these what-ifs are important questions. Are my speculations

realistic or not?

Who knows? When it  comes to the Middle East au moment, anything

goes!

S-L-M

A Circle Has No Beginning in MidEast Politics

“Calm will be reciprocated with calm, fire will be reciprocated by fire,”

commented IDF Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz. The idea of reciprocation–otherwise known as that ages-old “eye for an eye” rule that was established in ancient Babylonia-remains a popular concept in the Middle East, no matter one’s religion. Lt. General Benny Gantz, an Israeli, was referring to the recent rocket-launching between Israel and Palestine, a situation which classically reproduces the whole “she said, he said” theme and has one pondering the question “Which came first, the chicken or the egg?”

Problematic, isn't it? Or is there a beginning? Sourced from resistanceisfruitful.com

The answer is that a circle has no begining. There seem to be an awful lot of circles in the Middle East right now: cycles of violence, poverty and oppression that we see repeating themselves in the same fashion, over and over again. Time and again Palestinian militant groups like Hamas will set off terrorist attacks against Israel; Israel will likewise respond with it’s military prowess. Time and again innocent people across the Middle East die because of retaliation measures taken up by their governments/the people in charge. I think it’s time for us to look closer at the circle. Are those really circles we see, with no true beginings or ends, or do they actually start somewhere?

“Circle arguments,” to coin a new phrase, are those arguments in which both sides will forever point the blame at each other, forever unwilling to back down or admit wrongdoing. (Perhaps you are saying to yourself right now, that sounds like most arguments! To me, politics is nothing but circle arguments). Circle arguments deny any traces of a true begining, as neither side will agree to a common starting point, and they certainly prevent any end point from ever being reached. Although admirable in other aspects of society, circle arguments–or the “eye for an eye” rule–have no place or bearing in government and politics.

Essentially, following reciprocitiy or “an eye for an eye” basically eliminates the chance to forgive; it only enhances the competitition. And do the governments of the world really need any more competition than they already have? Competition eliminates any possibility of peace, and even if world peace will never be acheived for a multitude of reasons to lengthy to discuss here and now, it is still imperative and honorable to aim for it. Many Americans would probably say that invading Iraq and Afghanistan was an “eye for an eye” measure, a proper retaliation for the events of 9/11. But was it really neccessary to subject entire countries to years of struggle, poverty, and terror based on the events of that one day? 9/11 was a tragic moment in history, a moment that should have humbled the entire human race; but it did not merit an eye for an eye approach. Did the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan really help America, apart from ridding the world of Saddam Hussein? Did they really make Americans feel more comfortable and et ease with our worldly image? If anything, retaliation only hurt America more.

The “relationship” (if one could call it that) between Israel and Palestine is a never-ending circle of retaliation and finger-pointing, as both sides try to prove their righteousness. Both sides have acted inhumanely, disgustingly. Both sides have every reason to be angry–but, one must consider: is there a start to their circle? The creation of Israel seems like an obvious start to a circle of hatred and violence, but it is of course a tricky begining, for no one alive today was around at the time of the takeover of the Palestinian state and, therefore, one cannot blame any Israeli today; in fact, if anyone was to blame for the start of violence in this little, ancient corner of the Old World, it would be Britain and those who brought the state into being.

Most recently in the news, an American soldier went on a killing spree and gunned down 16 Afghanis, among them women and children. Immediately, Afghanis declared “retaliation” against the Americans for this act of supreme cruelty. Aha, here we have the “circle argument,” the “eye for an eye” motif again, and again we must ask is it really worth it? Will the Afghanis truly be satisfied by killing American soldiers in afghanistan? No, they will not; this act will not bring back the dead, The act of one deranged man should not be cause to attack his fellow countrymen; by declaring retaliation against Americans/America, the Afghani’s are only weilding the stereotyping and racism paintbrush (so very popular in society) which deems that one person is responsible for all those of the same nation/ethnicity. One man does not represent the whole of America; nor did the terrorists of 9/11 or any other day represent the whole of Middle Eastern Muslim populations. Rather than learn to forgive (or at least recognize the difference between one person and his brothers) the Afghani rebels would rather bring about more violence and fire.

The conclusion? Fight fire with fire in your own private battles, but when it comes to the security and prosperity of an entire nationhood of people, let the people keep their eyes, even if you feel differently. For if the whole world is blind, who can we turn to?

Links:

1.Shaky truce appears to end along Gaza-Israel border, CNNWire Staff, CNN
http://articles.cnn.com/2012-03-13/middleeast/world_meast_gaza-israel-airstrikes_1_gaza-militant-groups-gaza-borders-palestinian-resistance-factions/2?_s=PM:MIDDLEEAST

A “Code Red” in Egypt

Due to internet problems, I have not been online in almost a week. Today is my last day in Egypt; I will return home tommorow. So much has happened in Egypt that it is hard to know where to begin.

Because I am now pressed for time, I would like to share with you a bulletin about what has been going on in the streets of Egypt, along with links to interesting articles concerning the matter.

One of the Lions that Gaurd the Oct. 6 bridge. Can Egypt rise up again like the lion, and resume it's pride and dignity?

• Top officials barred from Traveling Port Said, a large city on the Mediterranean, was the scene of more than 70 deaths as violence broke out at a football match. Fans stormed the field, attacking the players and then each other. While watching the coverage on TV a million questions ran through my head: what possessed them to attack the players? What possessed other spectators to join in the melee? And furthermore, why didn’t the police try to control the scene? Footage shows them just idly standing, not even trying to stop the rioting. The scene was, to quote my husband, “like crazed animals being released from a cage:” men were just running across the field, not for any purpose such as to run for safety or even to join in the fight; they just ran as though they were at a track meet, or, as an American friend who was over at the time for dinner said, “As though it was their dream to run across the soccer pitch.” Since then, massive protests have erupted throughout Egypt, leading to only more deaths, and top officials in Port Said have been banned from traveling out of the country as they face inquiries as to how this tragedy could have happened. There is talk of conspiracy on the terms of the government/police/military, but from what I can see, it was just a bunch of people rioting for no good reason.
• Fire in Cairo Stadium On February 1st, a fire broke out in Cairo Stadium during a football match (Zamalek vs. Ahly) after officials learned of the fighting in Port Said. Although this article states that the fire was due to a “circuit failure,” videos (youtube) showed hooligans setting off fireworks and running around along the track that surrounds the field. Cairo Stadium is just minutes away from my flat in Nasr City, and I watched the news coverage on TV with utter horror because, yet again, the police on hand seemed to do nothing to control the scene and, furthermore, the acts of the fans were just unbelievable. Fireworks are dangerous and should only be used in a controlled setting. Using them in a public place such as a stadium is poor judgement, and once again, people were both killed or injured in the incident. Personally, for everyone’s safety, I feel that fireworks should not be bought by the public! (This is one NY state rule that I agree with!)
• Gunmen rob HSCB in New Cairo This article includes the link to the video that was shot of the masked gunmen robbing the bank; what I’m curious about is, who filmed the robbery? Some bloke was just looking out the window with his camera and spotted the incident, or was he in on it? What’s disturbing about this incident is that it was one of several robberies throughout Egypt in the past week; similar robberies were also held in the resort town of Sharm al-Shiekh, where two European tourists were killed by Bedouin gunmen.
• Americans Kidnapped by Bedouins 2 Female American tourists were kidnapped for ransom by a Bedouin tribe, according to this article not for money but for the release of political prisoners. I do believe that they have since been released, but seriously: if Egyptians ever want a single tourist (tourism is a vital part of the Egyptian economy) to come back to Egypt, they need to rethink all of this protest and violence. Kidnapping is a surefire way for your country to be on the “Travel advisory” that the TSA puts out; even I, as a ardent traveler with a love for adventure, would not attempt to go to a country on this list!

The result of this week of terror? People have done what they do best here in Egypt: taken to the streets in their anger and frustration. Violence begets violence: more people are dead as a result of the protests. But shouldn’t mourners, those who lost a loved one in these events, be at home, grieving, and not stampeding the streets? Part of me believes that the robberies-for there were many more than the two that I just mentioned-were more than coincidence; after all, nothing like this has happened in the whole past year since the revolution, and now we have all this mayhem in just a week’s time.  I don’t want to believe that the stadium tragedies were the SCAF’s/police’s fault, because it would just show more gross error on their part and surely they would be smart enough (one would hope, but then again, in the past they have proved wrong) to realize that instigating these tragedies would only make the public hate them more. Part of the blame surely rests in the bloody hands of the average Egyptian who participated in the Port Said riots, or the mayhem at Cairo Stadium, and that means, sadly, that they only have themselves to blame.

As this will most likely be my last post on Egyptian soil, I would like to give a bit of parting advice to the Egyptian people, specifically those who feel the need to roam the streets, protest and cause mayhem:

Be cool. Calm down. Ask yourself what you really want, and how it may be achieved. Go to a masjid and pray for hope, pray for an answer. The Koran itself  does not condone violence just for the sake of violence. Roaming the streets, throwing smoke bombs and attacking each other will not solve your problems nor your conscience. Your country was a magnificent center of civilization; let’s restore it to it’s former glory, so that all Egyptians can be proud to call themselves Egyptians. Inchallah, I will be back to Egypt many times over the course of my life, and I hope to find it in good hands.

S-L-M

Aliaa Magda Elmahdy: A Girl and her Photo

Girl takes nude photo. Nude photo appears on the internet. What happens?

If you’re a porn star, people salivate and save it to their computers. If you’re a celebrity, the same thing also happens–and the girl either shrugs it off as “any publicity is good publicity” or she tries to sue whoever leaked the photo. If you’re Aliaa Magda Elmahdy, said girl get insults, threats, and worldwide debate.

Aliaa Magda Elmahdy, a mere 20 year old  Cairene student and activist, posted a nude photo of herself on her blog. The reason? She wasn’t trying to be a slut or flaunt herself, but she was definitely trying to garner attention: Aliaa was protesting freedom of speech and, I would say, people’s extreme views on sex in the Middle East. She is quoted as writing:

‘Hide all art books and smash naked archaeological statues. ’Then take off your clothes and look at yourselves in the mirror, then burn your body that you so despise to get rid of your sexual complexes forever, before subjecting me to your bigoted insults or denying my freedom of expression.’

Words cannot describe how happy I was when I heard about this girl. My father had seen an article about her on AOL news. His response? “Well, Egyptian girls are rather attractive, aren’t they?” How radically different was his take on the photo from the many Muslims (mostly male, but there were women too) who poured hate onto her blog as well as her Facebook page, which I promptly added. The diatribes and hate people wrote were  sickening and disheartening. This girl is not a slut; she is not a whore. She is not a “crazy little bitch.” She took a picture of her body.

The profile photo for Aliaa Magda Elmahdy's facebook group "Aliaa Magda Elmahdy."

The human body is just that: the human body. Her comment as quoted above about people hating their own bodies is absolutely right: some people (particularly in the Middle East) are so hung up on sex that they have debased the human body. We all have a body, and who cares, quite frankly, if men’s bodies are slightly different from a woman’s body?

There is a tiny part of me that wishes that she had not taken the photo, and it is the part of me that sadly acknowledges the realities of life in Cairo, Egypt and that, as the Daily Mail article I read suggested, she may have done more harm than good. She took a radical step, and I’m not quite sure if Egypt was ready for such a bold move. Unfortunately, stripping down for this photo might have just reinforced people’s ideas that women are sluts and must be covered, otherwise they will go all out and bare all.

It’s unfair that, even in protesting, one should be prudent in taking care as to how one demonstrates. But the Daily Mail also pointed out another potential problem that could result from Aliaa’s statement: that her radical liberal approach might turn even lightly conservative people away from the liberal parties campaigning for office in Egypt. Egypt needs to maintain a “liberal,” open-minded and secular government. It will be such a shame if they replace Mubarak with extreme fundamentals who will certainly deny freedom of speech to a possibly even greater extent.

Despite the problems that her photo might cause for both her cause and for her personally (in my mind I see her cooped up in her flat, unable to leave for her own safety) I still think that, looking at the bigger picture, it needed to be done. She got not only Egypt’s attention, but the worlds!  She made her point clear: that one statement should not define a person, nor should one “statement” be enough to condemn her/him.

If I had to name my heros, Aliaa Magda Elmahdy, a girl who I have never met and whose name I had never heard until today, would be featured on that list. To risk your life, social standing and possibly freedom to defend freedom is something worth honoring. The woman should be respected, not condemned.

S-L-M

Links:

1. Aliaa Magda Elmahdy: Foolish act of bravery? Egyptian activist risks her life after posting full frontal nude shot online sparking outrage among Muslims” by Maysa Rawi, The DailyMail  UK, 18 November 2011.
   http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2063201/Aliaa-Magda-Elmahdy-blog-Egyptian-activist-posts-nude-photo-online-sparking-outrage.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

The End of Gaddafi, the Start of a New Libya

Being away from the computer for a mere 24 hours shows that a lot can happen! I returned home from NYC to find out that Colonel Muammar Gaddafi had been killed, thus punctuating the end of over-long era.

The fate of Gaddafi–the first of the Arab Spring dictators to be killed- is one that all dictators who rule with an iron fist (are there any who don’t??) must know is always a possibility down the line. True, Ben Ali of Tunisia managed to escape whatever fate the Tunisians had in store for him by fleeing to Saudi Arabia. Hosny Mubarak of Egypt was arrested, stripped of his millions and his dignity as he was wheeled into court. Will he be punished by death, like Gaddafi? Gaddafi’s fate might seem like the worst punishment, but in a sense it isn’t. Mubarak certainly has it worse as he is forced to sit chained in the grille box that criminals sit in in court: that level of humility is high. Ben Ali, although “free,” is exiled from the country of his birth and everything that implies–certainly not a light sentence. It makes one wonder: how does it feel to be a former leader removed from power by the citizens you once ruled who came to loathe you?

Alas, little sympathy can be spared for such figures, as they have run their countries into the ground economically, had dissenters silenced and/or murdered and basically used their power for corruption. These are people who appear to have little empathy. Wasn’t Saddam Hussein still cursing the Americans just before he was hanged, saying we’d all go to hell? You would think that he might have felt a bit of remorse for what he had done, seeing that if he hadn’t been so greedy in the first place he wouldn’t have become reviled, captured and executed. I don’t suppose there’s ever been a dictator who actually did good for their country.

The downfall of a dictator does not automatically mean that a country is “saved” and liberated. Egypt is struggling with it’s military rule. Iraq is a country still engaged in war, and torn apart. Did Libya “win it’s revolution,” as President Obama said? Yes, they might have gotten rid of their eccentric dictator  but the battle has really only begun. Now is their chance to create the Libya that they have been waiting for.

Good luck!

S-L-M